Morgan Stanley forecasts weak global truck sales in 2026

Volvo AB

13/01/2026 10:16

** Morgan Stanley expects 2026 sales for truckmakers to remain weak, especially in North America

** But adds improving freight rates, easing tariff uncertainty, EPA 2027 clarity, and long-term nearshoring tailwinds could potentially align throughout the year and mark start of cyclical recovery into 2027

** Remains cautious on near-term 2026 recovery in North America; expects South America to stay flat; sees modest improvement potential in Europe

** Daimler Truck DTGGe.DE ("overweight") is broker's top pick thanks to strong exposure to North America, self-help actions reducing European cost base, and margin safety created by attractive shareholder return strategy

** Cuts Volvo VOLVb.ST to "equal-weight" from "overweight", awaiting better entry points after recent rally

** Cuts Traton 8TRA.DE to "underweight" from "equal-weight", expecting impact from ramp-up of China factory and margin pressure from S232 tariffs for international business unit

(Reporting by Amir Orusov)

((Amir.orusov@thomsonreuters.com))